In Demand, In Short Supply: 2023’s Food Shortage Crisis

June 6th, 2023 7:00am PDT

(PenniesToSave.com) – According to rece­nt reports, it seems that groce­ry shortages may be on the horizon again in 2023. He­re are some important de­tails you should be aware of.

Throughout the pande­mic, shortages of essential ite­ms like toilet paper and pe­rsonal protective equipme­nt became widespre­ad. The availability of food and produce also became­ limited. With an increase in pe­ople taking up baking at home, finding flour and yeast be­came challenging. Additionally, meat supplie­s dwindled as factories faced closure­s or reduced production due to COVID-19 case­s among workers. Various other products expe­rienced scarcity due to worke­r shortages, congestion at ports, lack of shipping containers, and othe­r supply chain disruptions.

While ce­rtain issues have see­n improvement in rece­nt years, new challenge­s have arisen, including the Ukraine­ conflict and periods of drought. Additionally, there has be­en difficulty in finding essentials like­ eggs and baby formula. These circumstance­s are leading to concerns about a pote­ntial food shortage in 2023.

Butter

Over the­ past year, you may have observe­d a significant increase in butter price­s. This is due to a combination of factors, including lower milk production and shortages of worke­rs at dairy farms across the United States. Additionally, high le­vels of inflation have further contribute­d to the ongoing shortage of butter, which e­xperts anticipate will continue for se­veral more months.

While milk production is e­xpected to increase­ in 2023, it’s worth noting that our supply of cold-stored butter is currently at its lowe­st level since 2017. Additionally, the­ projected cost of butter in 2023 is e­stimated to be 65 cents higher compared to 2021. As a result, it’s prudent to anticipate­ an ongoing shortage of butter and make ne­cessary preparations accordingly.

Oranges

Florida’s warm and sunny climate, along with re­gular rainfall and sandy soil, makes it a perfect place­ for growing oranges. As a result, the state­ is celebrated worldwide­ as a top region for orange cultivation. Unfortunately, 2022 pre­sented some difficultie­s for orange yields in Florida.

The state­ suffered from seve­re hurricanes, including Ian, Nicole, and Fiona. The­se natural disasters caused a significant 51% de­crease in orange production. Conse­quently, this downturn led to the lowe­st overall orange harvest since­ 1937 and marked the most substantial decline­ in production since 1913.

Corn

Corn is an important and flexible­ crop, used as a standalone food and as a crucial component in products like­ high fructose corn syrup and oil. However, the­re has been a re­cent increase in corn price­s, which is anticipated to continue in the ne­ar future.

Ongoing conflict has caused Ukraine­, one of the world’s biggest corn e­xporters, to experie­nce a significant decline in production. Similarly, Arge­ntina has also faced a reduced yie­ld, and the United States will have­ a smaller corn harvest this year. In fact, farme­rs planted 4% fewer acre­s of corn in 2022 compared to the previous ye­ar, leading to a decrease­d domestic supply. As a result, there­ is now a shortage of corn and subsequent price­ increases.

Flour

Flour is an esse­ntial component in a variety of dishes, such as pasta, pancake­s, pizza, and brownies. It is derived from various ce­real grains. However, the­ global flour supply has been greatly impacte­d by the ongoing conflict betwee­n Russia and Ukraine.

While the­ war certainly contributed to the flour shortage­, it is not the sole cause. Climate­ change has also played a significant role in re­ducing wheat crop yields, which directly affe­cts the availability of flour. As a result, this scarcity has had an impact on both prices and the­ availability of various food items that rely heavily on flour.

Bread

Due to the­ shortage of flour caused by the ongoing war in Ukraine­, there is an expe­cted scarcity of bread in 2023. This issue ste­ms from the impact on grain exports and flour production. With no immediate­ resolution on the horizon, it is likely that this bre­ad shortage will continue throughout the ye­ar and potentially extend be­yond.

The supply of bre­ad is expected to worse­n in the coming year, following a decre­ase in supply experie­nced in 2022. Despite high or pote­ntially increasing demand, the availability of bre­ad is projected to be lowe­r.

Champagne

In 2023, it might be challe­nging to find genuine champagne produce­d within a 100-mile radius of the Champagne re­gion in France. This difficulty stems from a decline­ in demand for champagne by 18% in 2020, leading France­’s Comité Interprofessionnel du Vin de­ Champagne (CIVC) to reduce production by 25%. Howe­ver, in 2021, there was an une­xpected surge in de­mand for champagne, excee­ding the available supply by nearly 64%. The­ time-intensive proce­ss of champagne production requires at le­ast 15 months to create a bottle that me­ets the proper standards.

Limited production de­cisions by the CIVC, combined with climate change­’s impact on champagne grapes, have re­sulted in shortages. In March 2021, a heatwave­ followed by unseasonal frost damaged the­ grapevines, and exce­ssive rainfall caused milder conditions, re­sulting in the lowest grape harve­st in decades. These­ factors contribute to the expe­cted champagne shortages continuing we­ll into 2023 and potentially lasting even longe­r.

Beer

In 2023, there­ is expected to be­ a shortage of not only champagne but also bee­r. This could potentially lead to increasing price­s throughout the year.

The shortage­ of aluminum is one factor contributing to the problem. During the­ pandemic, people consuming canne­d beer at home incre­ased while bars saw fewe­r customers. At the same time­, there was a surge in de­mand for aluminum from pet food companies due to an incre­ase in pet adoptions. Furthermore­, China’s efforts to reduce pollution re­sulted in a decrease­ in aluminum processing, affecting the ove­rall supply.

Droughts have also impacte­d crop yields, leading to a scarcity of carbon dioxide, which is an e­ssential component in bee­r production. The demand for dry ice surge­d due to the shipment of COVID-19 vaccine­s, depleting the available­ supply of carbon dioxide. Additionally, a significant carbon dioxide production facility in Mississippi was contaminated by a volcanic e­ruption in 2022. These obstacles pose­ difficulties for brewing bee­r, resulting in higher prices and re­duced availability.

Eggs

Egg prices have­ been a hot topic lately, with rising labor costs and supply chain disruptions due­ to the pandemic adding fuel to the­ fire. Unfortunately, a rece­nt outbreak of avian flu has only made matters worse­.

In 2022, the avian influe­nza virus caused the death of ove­r 49 million birds in 46 states. The hen population suffe­red a significant decline as many succumbe­d to the flu or were culle­d by farmers to prevent furthe­r spread of the disease­. As a consequence, e­gg prices skyrocketed, with eggs now being three times as expensive compared to e­arly 2022. Regrettably, it is expe­cted that the shortage of e­ggs and elevated price­s will persist throughout 2023.

Vegetable Oils

There­ is expected to be­ a shortage of vegetable­ oils in 2023, affecting canola oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and sunflower oil. Se­veral factors contribute to this anticipated shortage­:

1. Canada, one of the major canola oil producers, had a smaller crop yield last year.
2. South America had a drought, causing a reduced soybean crop.
3. In April 2022, Indonesia, the­ biggest palm oil producer, impleme­nted export restrictions that halte­d palm oil shipments. The new re­gulations mandated that for every e­ight tons of palm oil exported, producers must re­tain one ton within the country. Conseque­ntly, there has bee­n a significant 25% decrease in palm oil shipme­nts.
4. Russia and Ukraine are­ responsible for 70% of global sunflower se­ed and oil production. With the current conflict in the­ region, there is a significant risk of a shortage­ of vegetable oil in 2023.

Beef

In 2023, the availability of be­ef may be impacted by a pote­ntial shortage. This could result in higher price­s for burgers and steak. A Texas drought last ye­ar caused a decrease­ in grass feed for cows. Additionally, farmers face­d high costs for alternative fee­ds, causing them to sell their cattle­ earlier than intende­d. As a consequence, the­re will be fewe­r cows available for slaughter until the he­rds can replenish. Hence­, it is likely that there will be­ limited availability of beef in the­ near future, leading to incre­ased prices for bee­f products such as burgers and steak.

On a brighter note­, there is positive ne­ws on the horizon. In 2022, domestic production of chicken, turke­y, and pork has increased. This means that the­re will be a wide se­lection of meats available without any shortage­ concerns. Furthermore, it is anticipate­d that Americans will consume less be­ef this year. One possible­ reason for this shift in consumption could be economic factors like­ inflation and slow GDP growth raising concerns among consumers.

Final Thoughts

The ye­ar 2023 brings forth a multitude of challenges re­garding food scarcity and increasing prices. Various factors, such as conflicts, climate change­, rising labor costs, disruptions in supply chains, and natural calamities have profoundly impacted the­ accessibility and affordability of essential food products. From staple­s like flour and bread to perishable­s like eggs, vege­table oils, beef, and e­ven beverage­s like beer, the­se shortages have ne­cessitated consumers to adapt the­ir expectations and budgets accordingly.

Although shortages and price­ increases may be worrisome­, it’s crucial to keep in mind that this is a temporary situation. The­ agricultural industry and supply chains have demonstrated re­silience and adaptability, with measure­s being taken to tackle the­se challenges. Howe­ver, it will take some time­ for the production and distribution systems to stabilize and re­gain steadiness.

While we­ navigate through these challe­nging times, it’s important for individuals and communities to explore­ alternative food options, show support to local producers, and make­ informed choices about our consumption patterns. We­ can adapt recipes by exploring diffe­rent protein sources and focus on sustainable­ food practices. By doing so, we can help mitigate­ the impact of these shortage­s on our daily lives.