August 14, 2026 09:00 AM PST
(PenniesToSave.com) – For about a week in early August, it looked like drivers were catching a break. GasBuddy reported on August 10 that the national average price of gasoline had fallen 10.7 cents over the previous week to $3.94 per gallon, with prices declining in 47 states [5]. Anyone who had been wincing at the pump since spring had reason to think the worst was behind them.
That relief lasted two days. On August 12, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, announced that the national average had never been above $4 a gallon after August 12 in any previous year on record [3]. He had warned two days earlier that exactly this could happen [5]. By August 13, AAA put the national average at $4.0715 per gallon, against $3.1558 at the same point last year [1]. That is a difference of roughly 92 cents, or about 29 percent.
Translated into a fill-up, a 15 gallon tank now costs about $13.75 more than it did last August. A two car household filling up once a week is looking at more than $1,400 in additional fuel spending over a year. That is not a rounding error in a family’s finances, and it is the kind of recurring cost that tends to quietly reshape a monthly budget before anyone sits down and does the math. If your fuel line has crept up without your grocery or utility lines moving down, it may be worth revisiting how to build a household budget that reflects current prices rather than last year’s.
Here is what drivers are actually paying, why the relief evaporated, what is happening at the waterway driving it, what it costs a typical household, and what forecasters expect next.
Quick Links
- What Are Drivers Paying at the Pump Right Now?
- Why Did Last Week’s Relief Disappear So Quickly?
- What Is Actually Happening at the Strait of Hormuz?
- How Much More Is a Full Tank Costing This Year?
- Where Do Forecasters Expect Prices to Go From Here?
What Are Drivers Paying at the Pump Right Now?
AAA reported a national average of $4.0715 per gallon on August 13. One week earlier the average sat at $4.0633. One month earlier it was $3.8722. One year earlier it was $3.1558 [1]. The path between those points was not a straight line. Prices slid to $4.00 on Monday before turning around and climbing back to $4.07 by midweek [1]. AAA described the current stretch as the highest August on record for the national gasoline average [1].
The national number, though, hides how differently this lands depending on where you live. AAA’s least expensive markets are Louisiana at $3.57, Indiana at $3.59, Mississippi at $3.60, Alabama at $3.61, Texas at $3.63, South Carolina at $3.65, Tennessee at $3.65, Kentucky at $3.70, Arkansas at $3.71, and North Carolina at $3.72 [1]. At the other end sit California at $5.58, Hawaii at $5.43, Washington at $5.16, Alaska at $4.83, Nevada at $4.76, Oregon at $4.69, Idaho at $4.41, Arizona at $4.40, Utah at $4.32, and Colorado at $4.31 [1].
That is a gap of roughly two dollars a gallon on the same commodity, moved through the same global market, in the same country. A driver in Louisiana filling a 15 gallon tank pays about $53.55. The same tank in California runs about $83.70. Readers can draw their own conclusions about what accounts for a spread that large, but the numbers themselves are not in dispute.
GasBuddy, which uses a different collection method drawing on more than 12 million individual price reports from over 150,000 stations, offers a useful look at distribution rather than averages. As of August 10, the most common price drivers actually encountered was $3.99, the median price was $3.82, the top 10 percent of stations averaged $5.20, and the bottom 10 percent averaged $3.30 [5]. Because the two organizations survey differently, their national figures are not directly comparable and should not be read against each other.
Why Did Last Week’s Relief Disappear So Quickly?
The early August dip was real and it was broad. Gasoline prices fell in 47 states and diesel fell in 39, with the largest weekly declines in Michigan at 20.1 cents, Delaware at 18.1 cents, Ohio at 16.4 cents, Oklahoma at 14.6 cents, and New Mexico at 13.8 cents [5]. Then crude turned back up. West Texas Intermediate traded at $79.62 per barrel early Monday, August 10 [5], and settled at $83.27 on Wednesday, August 12 [1]. Brent gained to $85.00 on Monday against $82.95 a week earlier [5].
Crude is the dominant input here. The Energy Information Administration notes that the cost of oil typically represents more than half the cost of a gallon of gasoline [2]. When crude moves, the pump follows, usually within days.
“For now, enjoy the dip, but keep a close eye”
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, August 10 [5]
What makes this stretch unusual is that Americans are buying less gasoline and paying more for it anyway. AAA reported that gasoline demand decreased from 9.03 million barrels per day to 8.96 million, while total domestic gasoline supply fell from 209.7 million barrels to 208.7 million [1]. Under normal conditions, softening demand pulls prices down. It is not doing so, which points to constrained supply rather than consumer behavior as the driver.
Refined product inventories back that up. Citing EIA data for the week ending July 31, GasBuddy reported gasoline inventories fell 1.6 million barrels to roughly 7 percent below the five year seasonal average, distillates fell 3.5 million barrels to about 12 percent below, and refinery utilization ran at 96.5 percent [5]. Refineries are running nearly flat out and stocks are still thinning. De Haan attributed diesel’s smaller decline in part to continued pressure on refined product markets from ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries [5].
One figure worth flagging rather than smoothing over: GasBuddy, citing EIA for the week ending July 31, put commercial crude inventories about 6 percent below the five year average [5], while AAA reported on August 13 that crude inventories stood at 424.4 million barrels, roughly 2 percent below the five year average [1]. Both trace back to EIA data on different dates. We are listing both rather than picking one.
What Is Actually Happening at the Strait of Hormuz?
Before weighing anyone’s characterization of the Strait of Hormuz, it helps to have one concrete number. Shipping through the waterway is running at 8 to 15 vessel transits per day, compared with roughly 130 before the conflict [5]. Around 20 percent of the world’s daily oil consumption normally moves through that channel [3].
From there, the accounts diverge sharply, and readers deserve all of them rather than whichever one fits a preferred storyline.
President Trump wrote on Truth Social Wednesday morning that the United States “has total control over the Strait of Hormuz” [3], and has said sanctions will bring Iran to the bargaining table [4]. Fox News anchor Bret Baier pushed back on the control claim on air, noting that traffic has slowed [3].
Shipping is running at 8 to 15 vessel transits per day, compared with roughly 130 before the conflict.
GasBuddy, August 10 [5]
On the other side, Iran’s foreign minister stated over the weekend that Tehran is not in direct talks with the United States, contradicting American claims that a deal is near [5]. Iran’s supreme national security council said the strait remains closed until a set of conditions is met, including the lifting of sanctions and war reparations [5]. Separately, Iran and Oman said last week they were nearing an agreement to reopen the route [3].
Even the number of Iranian conditions differs by outlet. The Hill described three [3], NerdWallet listed four including a demand for United States military withdrawal from the area and compensation for war damages [2], and GasBuddy reported six [5]. No source we reviewed itemized all six.
Markets appear to have made their own judgment. UBS commodities analyst Giovanni Staunovo observed that oil prices recovered as flows remained restricted, and that all energy agencies issue monthly oil market reports this week [5]. GasBuddy characterized the muted price move as a market that has largely priced in a prolonged standoff as the war enters its sixth month [5].
How Much More Is a Full Tank Costing This Year?
Using AAA’s figures throughout, the year over year increase is about 92 cents per gallon, from $3.1558 to $4.0715 [1]. GasBuddy, measuring differently, put its own year over year increase at 85.6 cents [5]. NerdWallet, also citing AAA but on a different pull date, listed the year ago average at $3.1394 [2]. Call it roughly 90 cents either way.
The longer baseline is more striking than the one year comparison. The pre pandemic average in 2019 was $2.601 per gallon according to EIA data, and the all time AAA record high was $5.016 on June 14, 2022 [2]. More relevant to right now, the national average was just under $3 on February 28, the first day of the attacks on Iran, and gasoline was below $3 in 39 states that month [2]. In under six months, the typical American driver went from paying under $3 to paying over $4.
Diesel deserves attention even from households that never buy it, because it moves through freight costs before it reaches store shelves. GasBuddy put the national diesel average at $5.275 per gallon, ranging from $4.72 in Oklahoma to $6.85 in California [5].
Switching to electricity is not an automatic escape either. AAA reported the national average for public EV charging held steady at 42 cents per kilowatt hour [1]. The most expensive states for public charging are West Virginia at 52 cents, Hawaii at 51, Alaska at 48, and California, Louisiana, and New Hampshire each at 47 [1]. The least expensive are Kansas at 31 cents, Missouri at 32, and Iowa at 33 [1].
For readers near a state line, the spread is a genuine opportunity, and AAA’s TripTik planner shows gas and charging prices along a route [1]. For everyone else, a fuel line that has grown by a few hundred dollars a year has to come from somewhere, which is why it is worth looking at practical ways to cut back on household expenses before the shortfall turns into revolving credit card debt.
Where Do Forecasters Expect Prices to Go From Here?
The honest answer is that the near term view is split, and the past week demonstrated why.
The case for relief rests on what already happened once. Oil fell at the start of the prior week on expectations that flows through the strait could improve, then recovered when they did not [5]. Brent had come down from a July 23 high above $100 a barrel after the United States paused strikes on July 24 [2]. If a reopening agreement firms up, the mechanism for lower prices is already proven.
The case for more pain is that De Haan warned on August 10 that with the strait closed, upward pressure could return quickly and the national average could reach its highest level ever recorded this late in the calendar year [5]. That prediction came true within 48 hours [3]. Seasonal factors are not helping either, since refineries are currently producing the more expensive summer blend [2].
Looking further out, NerdWallet reported that any return to pre war prices could be as far as a year away as global energy supply recovers from what has been a major disruption [2]. That estimate is not attributed to a named forecaster in the reporting, so it is worth treating as one view rather than a settled projection.
What all of this means practically is that trying to time a fill up around this market is a losing game. The dip took a week to develop and two days to vanish. Knowing where your state sits in the national spread, and building a budget that assumes fuel stays above $4 rather than hoping it does not, is the more durable approach.
Final Thoughts
There is a version of this story that is purely about geopolitics, and a version that is purely about a number on a sign. The one that matters to most households sits in between. A 92 cent increase per gallon is not abstract. It is a real transfer out of grocery money, school clothes money, and savings, and it arrives every single week without anyone signing off on it.
What the past week showed is that relief is possible but fragile. Prices fell in 47 states, then reversed and set a record for the calendar date, all inside of about 72 hours [5][3]. Nobody at a pump has any control over vessel transits in a waterway 7,000 miles away. What families do control is how much of the shock they absorb before it starts showing up on a credit card statement.
If fuel has become the line item that keeps blowing up your month, the fix is rarely one dramatic change. It is usually several small ones applied consistently, which is the thinking behind these straightforward steps for saving money each month. Watch the crude number, know your state’s average, and plan for the higher price rather than the hoped for one.
Works Cited
[1] “After Falling for a Week, National Average Climbing Again.” AAA Fuel Prices, 13 Aug. 2026, gasprices.aaa.com/after-falling-for-a-week-national-average-climbing-again/.
[2] Helhoski, Anna, and Taryn Phaneuf. “Gas Continues to Hover Above $4 as Iran Issues Demands.” NerdWallet, 10 Aug. 2026, www.nerdwallet.com/finance/learn/are-gas-prices-going-down.
[3] Davis, Sarah. “GasBuddy: Average Gas Price Reaches Record High for This Time of Year.” The Hill, 12 Aug. 2026, thehill.com/business/6025168-fuel-prices-highest-level-gasbuddy-analysis/.
[4] “Gas Prices Rise as Trump Claims Control over Hormuz.” FOX 9, 13 Aug. 2026, www.fox9.com/video/fmc-qij9ak0sx4kwqsfe.
[5] “A Welcome Drop in Gas Prices, and a Warning That It Might Not Last.” GasBuddy, 10 Aug. 2026, www.gasbuddy.com/go/a-welcome-drop-in-gas-prices-and-a-warning-that-it-might-not-last.